1.7 million active subscribers

Bioware just released their current active subscription numbers. Their official announcement can be found here: http://www.swtor.com/news/press-release/20120201 1.7 million active subscribers. A pretty impressive number for a 6 weeks old game. Another thing to take into account is that many people who were estimating the growth and success of SWTOR were commenting that the first month numbers aren't a good indication of the subscribers, because people who buy the game get 30 days free, so when counting the numbers during the first month, you count all the people who bought the game at launch or pre-ordered it, were disappointed by the game and never became active subscribers. This become irrelevant past the first month. While potentially this number still includes people who bought the game during the past 30 days and aren't happy enough to become active subscribers, these numbers are currently much smaller than during the first month.



What is the current WOW number? The latest exact number I could find is here: http://wow.joystiq.com/2011/11/08/wow-subscriber-numbers-down-to-10-3-million-players/ this is from November 8th, 2011. This is a continued decline of the subscription base which according to pcworld publication at the time, amounts to 2 million less active subscribers in a year. This has nothing to do with SWTOR because these numbers were published in November. How many more of WOW ex-subscribers are currently SWTOR subscribers is not a number anyone has, but I'm guessing it's a pretty significant one. More people leave when there's a temptation of a shiny new game to replace what you are currently playing.

This makes SWTOR currently about 1/6 of the size of WOW with SWTOR continue to gain subscribers and WOW numbers on a steady decline for over a year now. With Mists of Pandaria, WOW's coming expansion, Blizzard will sure see a return of some of it's subscribers, I might also check it out myself if it'll be really good and add features that I'll find interesting, but expansion will be a small delay for the inevitable decline trend. There is no other way to look at it, WOW is dying.

Don't get me wrong, I don't hate WOW, on the contrary, It was probably the game I spent more time playing than any other game I've ever played. I had (actually still have) 6 max level characters, with the other 4 classes above level 60. I was playing a bit through Vanilla WOW, a lot during the Burning Crusade and very actively raiding through the entire Lich King expansion and the first 2 patches of Cataclysm. I think WOW was one of the best games ever made. However, there is simply no way a game that old can keep up with new titles forever, 1 month with SWTOR and it's obvious that while SWTOR needs some features to catch up with WOW, WOW will need a complete rewrite to bring it to SWTOR new standards.

So goodbye WOW, you definitely kept me entertained for countless of hours for few years. You were a great  gaming accomplishment. I'm sure you still have a descent run ahead of you, there are loyal customers who won't easily toss you aside for the next toy. Just like Everquest fans had a hard time leaving it when WOW was released. However when I think of where these games currently are, what comes to mind is: "The king is dead, long live the King", or at least live long enough till a new king will surface. The more companies will compete for our gaming time and dollars, the better games we'll have to play. If even the great WOW can be defeated, it should give more developers the incentive to make great games.

I'll continue to monitor these numbers in the future and keep you posted if my projections were correct, or I was reading too much into the current trends and they'll eventually reverse, proving me wrong.

Feel free to share your thoughts, the comment button is there for a reason. Currently I have no restrictions what so ever on comments, at least until the spammers will hit me and I'll have no choice.